US-Israeli Attack Against Iran Imminent

(Strategic Culture Foundation, 14.3.2010)

The statement that the US and Israel are bracing for an invasion of Iran made by Israeli envoy to the UN G. Shalev shows that — after failing to drum up international support for the offensive — Washington and Tel-Aviv decided to act on their own.

Iran's civilian nuclear program is used as a pretext for the aggression. The actual motivation behind it is that Iran's economic and political integration into Eurasia, the space stretching from France and Germany to China, would undercut the US influence over the continent. It is not Iran's nuclear program, but its oil and gas reserves that are important in the context as they can serve as the basis of the economic development of China and the EU.

Under the current circumstances in international politics, France is ready to sell military ships to Russia, Germany suggests integrating Russia into the European armed forces, and the EU is looking into the possibility of establishing its separate analog of the IMF. Consequently, the US is no longer needed as a global moderator. America's last resort in the struggle over retaining the role of the global policeman is war. It does not matter that much what war and against whom — making inroads into Eurasia is Washington's priority and all it takes is not necessarily a serious humanitarian pretext.

Therefore, the imminent US withdrawal from Iraq and Afghanistan and the accompanying embarrassment will be followed by destabilization in Iran, which will for years arrest the socioeconomic development of Eurasian countries, or by US seizure of control of Iran's oil and gas reserves. This would allow the US to go on acting as the global moderator.

The US is invoking as the ideological basis the myth of the Russian military threat to Europe — a successor to the Soviet threat myth - as a pretext for intervening into the dialog between Europe and Russia. The picture Washington is trying to paint is that Europe is defenseless unless the powerful US patronizes it.

Similarly, the US is securing its presence in other parts of the world by spreading appropriate myths like the ethnic cleansing in the former Yugoslavia allegedly perpetrated by Serbs, the nonexistent WMD stockpiles in Iraq, the alleged organization of the 9/11 terrorist attack by the Talibs, Iran's nuclear bomb, etc. Provocation is Washington's traditional instrument in the struggle for global dominance.

Accordingly, any warming between Eurasian countries that is not brokered by the US tends to met with Washington's resistance (the story of the organization of Russia's gas supplies to West Germany being an example). The key conclusion to be drawn from the above is that the US is the number one opponent of peace and of Eurasia's steady development who provokes armed conflicts to derail progress in international relations. Without conflicts, the US would see its influence contract to the proportions of just one continent, its six navies and countless military bases across the world — turn into useless assets, and its nuclear arsenal — into a burden.

There is yet another reason why the US has to launch an aggression against Iran — it is rooted in the US dollar's role of the global currency. At the moment, the economic situation the US is finding itself in is no better than in the epoch of the great depression. At that distant time the US was dragged out of trouble by the unprecedented war in Europe, not by Roosevelt's remarkable economic endeavors. The US got out of the crisis at the cost of millions of lives of Russians, Germans, Belorussians, Frenchmen, Poles, etc.

The present-day situation is similar — without a major war, the US economy is doomed to either a dollar default or hyperinflation. The same logic applies to Israel. Having lost the US superpower backing, Tel-Aviv is forced to negotiate peace with the Palestinians more or less on their terms. Such development can jeopardize the very existence of Israel in its current shape, not due to the Arab threat but rather due to mass out-migration of its own population.

No doubt, the US would readily blow up the world to safeguard its global leadership and therefore, the US and Israeli war against Iran is imminent. The key question is not when the war is going to erupt but what other major countries are prepared to do to prevent a global catastrophe.

All military conflicts involving the US were sparked by provocations, and the priority at the moment is to focus on neutralizing the consequences of the provocation that the world is about to encounter. The logical hypothesis is that the likely provocation to trigger an attack against Iran is a detonation of a «dirty» nuclear bomb by the US and Israeli intelligence services (or a blow-up of a nuclear power plant) in Israel or somewhere in West Europe.

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