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Broj 3-4-2009 Tema: Svetska ekonomska kriza i Srbija

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petak, 26. novembar 2010.

Broj 3-4 2009Uvodnik

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UVODNIK

Kri­za je na­čin po­sto­ja­nja mo­der­nog sve­ta i čo­ve­ka. Kri­za su­bjek­tiv­no­sti, kri­za po­li­ti­ke, kri­za mo­ra­la, kri­za iden­ti­te­ta... Ali sve dok se ni­su po­ja­vi­li zna­ci ozbilj­ne fi­nan­sij­ske i eko­nom­ske kri­ze to je ma­lo ko­ga za­ni­ma­lo, a po­vre­me­ni gla­so­vi upo­zo­re­nja su ili ig­no­ri­sa­ni, ili isme­va­ni kao za­no­ve­ta­nje i pre­te­ri­va­nje de­žur­nih pe­si­mi­sta i eko­nom­skih i so­ci­jal­nih „ka­ta­stro­fi­ča­ra“.

A on­da su se stva­ri pro­me­ni­le pre­ko no­ći. Kri­za je, ta­ko­re­ći, po­sta­la hit, pre­tva­ra­ju­ći se u deo po­pu­lar­ne kul­tu­re i ne­za­o­bi­la­znu te­mu, ka­ko bez­broj­nih sim­po­zi­ju­ma, ta­ko i ra­znih „tok šo­ua“ i „ri­ja­li­ti“ pro­gra­ma. No, is­pod tog ve­se­log i estrad­nog aspek­ta vo­di se ogor­če­na bit­ka za in­ter­pre­ta­ci­ju, od­no­sno tu­ma­če­nje lan­ca do­ga­đa­ja ko­ji su (zva­nič­no) ot­po­če­li pro­pa­šću „Li­man Bra­der­sa“ i po­tre­si­ma na ame­rič­kom tr­ži­štu ne­kret­ni­na. U osno­vi, sve se vr­ti oko prog­no­zi­ra­nja to­ka i po­sle­di­ca kri­ze, kao i oko pi­ta­nja (ne)odr­ži­vo­sti neo­li­be­ral­nog so­cio-eko­nom­skog kon­cep­ta ko­ji je po mno­gim tu­ma­če­nji­ma ozna­čen kao glav­ni kri­vac za te­ku­ću kri­zu. Da li je u pi­ta­nju „maj­ka svih kri­za“ i ko­nač­ni slom po­ret­ka i na­či­na ži­vo­ta na ko­ji smo na­vi­kli? Ili je reč tek o pro­la­znom, pe­ri­o­dič­nom „ka­šljuc­ka­nju“ ma­ši­ne­ri­je svet­skog ka­pi­ta­li­stič­kog si­ste­ma? Ili ne­što tre­će?

Sa­mo na­iz­gled pa­ra­dok­sal­no, ova in­fla­ci­ja go­vo­ra o kri­zi vo­di ka nje­noj ba­na­li­za­ci­ji. Za­pra­vo, ra­di se o pro­jek­tu „na­vi­ka­va­nja na kri­zu“ i po­ku­ša­ju da se sa njom „sa­ži­vi“, te da se ona pred­sta­vi kao ne­ka vr­sta pri­rod­ne, ali u su­šti­ni be­za­zle­ne ne­mi­nov­no­sti (ne­što kao vi­ro­za ili ki­ja­vi­ca). A on­da, raz­u­me se, ne­ma mno­go smi­sla ni po­sta­vlja­ti pi­ta­nje od­go­vor­no­sti za kri­zu, ni­ti tra­ga­ti za ne­kim ra­di­kal­ni­jim pu­te­vi­ma za nje­no pre­va­zi­la­že­nje.

U sva­kom slu­ča­ju, ne ula­ze­ći u ko­nač­nu pro­ce­nu du­bi­ne, in­ten­zi­te­ta, a na­ro­či­to is­ho­da ak­tu­el­ne kri­ze, slo­bod­no se mo­že kon­sta­to­va­ti da smo tre­nut­no da­le­ko bli­že „po­vrat­ku“ i „po­na­vlja­nju“, ne­go bi­lo ka­kvom „za­vr­šet­ku“ isto­ri­je, bli­ži smo „apo­ka­lip­si“ ne­go „več­nom mi­ru“, i bli­ži svet­skom so­cio-eko­nom­skom me­te­žu ne­go glo­bal­nom „part­ner­stvu“ iz­me­đu ra­da i ka­pi­ta­la. Ne­ma, na­i­me, di­le­me da su se do sa­da slič­ne kri­ze – a sva­ka je bi­la spe­ci­fič­na na svoj na­čin – uvek raz­re­ša­va­le ra­tom i po­ja­ča­nim na­si­ljem, ka­ko u unu­tra­šnje­po­li­tič­kim re­la­ci­ja­ma, ta­ko i u me­đu­na­rod­nim od­no­si­ma. Pri če­mu ovo po­sled­nje tre­ba vi­še shva­ti­ti kao pod­se­ća­nje i ozbilj­no upo­zo­re­nje ne­go kao pro­ro­čan­stvo.

Ka­da je o Sr­bi­ji reč, tu stva­ri sto­je mno­go ja­sni­je, pa i pred­vi­đa­nja mo­gu bi­ti znat­no po­u­zda­ni­ja. Mo­glo bi se re­ći – na­ža­lost. Prak­tič­no svi auto­ri ovog bro­ja NSPM sla­žu se oko to­ga da je svet­ska eko­nom­ska i fi­nan­sij­ska kri­za u Sr­bi­ji pa­la na „plod­no tlo“, pret­hod­no pri­pre­mlje­no ra­tom i sank­ci­ja­ma to­kom de­ve­de­se­tih, kao i po­gub­nom eko­nom­skom po­li­ti­kom u po­sled­njoj de­ce­ni­ji. Ta­ko da su te­ško­će sa ko­ji­ma se srp­sko dru­štvo, pri­vre­da i gra­đa­ni su­o­ča­va­ju, i sa ko­ji­ma će se tek su­o­ča­va­ti u vre­me­nu pred na­ma, sa­mo jed­nim (ma­njim) de­lom po­sle­di­ca uda­ra glo­bal­ne kri­ze, a ve­ćim de­lom re­zul­tat udru­že­nog ra­da do­ma­ćih sna­ga i stra­ne „eko­nom­ske pa­me­ti“. No, raz­u­me se, to što smo se mi sur­va­va­li dok su dru­gi na­pre­do­va­li i be­le­ži­li, što stvar­ni, što pa­pir­na­ti rast, ne­će bi­ti ni­ka­kva pred­nost, a po­go­to­vo ne znak da će­mo sa­da mi ra­sti dok dru­gi pa­da­ju.

Bi­lo da se ba­ve glo­bal­nim, bi­lo lo­kal­nim, srp­skim aspek­tom pri­če, i bi­lo da im je ana­li­za ma­kro ili mi­kro­e­ko­nom­ski usme­re­na, auto­ri ovog te­mat­skog bro­ja NSPM, uz sve me­đu­sob­ne raz­li­ke, ve­ru­ju i u svo­jim pri­lo­zi­ma uglav­nom ube­dlji­vo do­ka­zu­ju po­gub­ne po­sle­di­ce ko­je go­to­vo ne­u­pit­na dvo­de­ce­nij­ska vla­da­vi­na neo­li­be­ral­ne pa­ra­dig­me osta­vlja na pri­vre­du, dru­štvo i po­je­din­ce.

Po­red Te­me bro­ja (Oskar Ko­vač, Og­njen Ra­do­njić, Ne­boj­ša Ka­tić, Jo­van Du­ša­nić, Ru­ži­ca Cvet­ko­vić, Mla­đen Ko­va­če­vić, De­jan Milj­ko­vić, Raj­ko Bu­kvić), pro­ble­mom svet­ske eko­nom­ske kri­ze i eko­nom­ske po­li­ti­ke ba­ve se i tek­sto­vi DŽo­ze­fa Šti­gli­ca, Ma­ri­je Ob­ra­do­vić i De­ja­na Mi­ro­vi­ća. Alek­san­dar Ja­zić pi­še o ame­rič­koj i so­vjet­skoj pro­pa­gan­di u hlad­nom ra­tu, a Ma­rio Ka­lik i Adri­a­na Za­ha­ri­je­vić po­le­mi­šu sa tek­sto­vi­ma Mi­la Lom­pa­ra i Slo­bo­da­na An­to­ni­ća. Ko­nač­no, u ru­bri­ci Pri­ka­zi, De­jan Pe­tro­vić, Bo­ri­sav Kne­že­vić, Alek­san­dar No­va­ko­vić, Slo­bo­dan An­to­nić, Sa­ša Ga­jić i Želj­ka Bu­tu­ro­vić pi­šu o knji­ga­ma Na­o­mi Klajn, Fren­si­sa Fu­ku­ja­me, Alek­san­dra Pav­ko­vi­ća, Pe­tra Ra­da­na, De­ja­na Mi­ro­vi­ća, Ni­ko­le Ko­lje­vi­ća i Kri­sto­fe­ra Kol­dve­la.

tema broja

Oskar Kovač

Fa­kul­tet za me­đu­na­rod­nu eko­no­mi­ju

Be­o­grad

UZROCI I MOGUĆI KONCEPTI REŠAVANjA SVETSKE FINANSIJSKE KRIZE

Sa­že­tak:Ne­spo­sob­nost neo­kla­sič­ne te­o­ri­je da sa­gle­da uzro­ke pri­vred­nih i fi­nan­sij­skih kri­za po­ti­če od ne­re­al­nih pret­po­stav­ki o ra­ci­o­nal­nom po­na­ša­nju pro­iz­vo­đa­ča i po­tro­ša­ča i o per­fekt­nom funk­ci­o­ni­sa­nju tr­ži­šta. Upra­vo ne­is­pu­nje­nost tih uslo­va ob­ja­šnja­va ve­ći­nu pri­vred­nih i fi­nan­sij­skih kri­za. Fi­nan­sij­ske kri­ze ta­ko­đe na­sta­ju zbog to­ga što je po­gre­šna de­re­gu­la­ci­ja zna­čaj­no im­per­fekt­nih fi­nan­sij­skih tr­ži­šta spre­či­la da se po­slov­nim ban­ka­ma na­met­ne od­go­vor­no po­na­ša­nje za­sno­va­no na pro­pi­sa­noj pro­por­ci­ji sop­stve­nog ka­pi­ta­la u od­no­su na pla­sma­ne. Ma­sov­no spa­sa­va­nje ne­sol­vent­nih ve­li­kih ba­na­ka u raz­vi­je­nim ze­mlja­ma, bez re­for­me fi­nan­sij­skog si­ste­ma i re­gu­li­sa­nja fi­nan­sij­skih tr­ži­šta, iza­zva­će još ve­će kri­ze u bu­duć­no­sti. Na re­ša­va­nju kri­ze se ra­di na dva ko­lo­se­ka. Gru­pa 20 ze­ma­lja, bez kon­sul­to­va­nja osta­lih dr­ža­va sve­ta, na­sto­ji da kre­i­ra glo­bal­na re­še­nja. Isto­vre­me­no isti po­sao ra­de Uje­di­nje­ne na­ci­je sa pu­nom za­stu­plje­no­šću ce­le svet­ske za­jed­ni­ce. Zbog raz­li­ka u in­te­re­si­ma ključ­nih ze­ma­lja i du­go­traj­nih za­ko­no­dav­nih pro­ce­du­ra ni­jed­na od ovih op­ci­ja ne­će sti­ći da se pri­me­ni do sle­de­će kri­ze.

Ključ­ne re­či: fi­nan­sij­ske kri­ze, pri­vred­ne re­ce­si­je, uzro­ci i mo­gu­ća re­še­nja.

Og­njen Ra­do­njić

Fi­lo­zof­ski fa­kul­tet

Be­o­gra­d

UZRO­CI TE­KU­ĆE GLO­BAL­NE FI­NAN­SIJ­SKE KRI­ZE:  MA­GLA KO­JA JE USPE­ŠNO PRO­DA­TA*

Sa­že­tak: Glo­bal­na fi­nan­sij­ska kri­za je iz­bi­la u av­gu­stu 2007. Ka­ko bi se u bu­duć­no­sti iz­be­gle slič­ne gre­ške, cilj ovog ra­da je da pro­na­đe od­go­vo­re na pi­ta­nja ka­ko je i za­što kri­za iz­bi­la i ko su glav­ni kriv­ci. Pro­na­la­zi­mo da je uzrok kri­ze kon­ti­nu­i­ra­ni pro­ces de­re­gu­la­ci­je u pe­ri­o­du ko­ji je sle­dio na­kon za­vr­šet­ka Dru­gog svet­skog ra­ta. U po­tra­zi za stal­no ra­stu­ćim pro­fi­ti­ma, po­hlep­ni nov­ča­ni ren­ti­je­ri su kre­i­ra­li broj­ne va­ri­jan­te fik­tiv­nih i ve­o­ma ri­zič­nih du­žnič­kih fi­nan­sij­skih in­stru­me­na­ta i kroz pri­me­nu raz­li­či­tih teh­ni­ka sti­mu­li­sa­nja kre­di­ta stvo­ri­li ilu­zi­ju da su eg­zo­tič­ni pro­iz­vo­di ma­što­vi­tih fi­nan­sij­skih ma­đi­o­ni­ča­ra si­gur­ni. Na­rav­no, sma­tra­mo da su glav­ni kriv­ci oni ko­ji su omo­gu­ći­li cve­ta­nje jed­ne od naj­ve­ćih pre­va­ra u fi­nan­sij­skoj isto­ri­ji – neo­d­go­vor­ne, do­bro pla­će­ne i ko­rum­pi­ra­ne re­gu­la­tor­ne vla­sti.

Ključ­ne re­či: dug, špe­ku­li­sa­nje, de­re­gu­la­ci­ja, eg­zo­tič­ni fi­nan­sij­ski in­stru­men­ti, kri­za.

Ne­boj­ša Ka­tić

London

Neo­li­be­ral­ni ko­re­ni svet­ske ekonomske kri­ze

Sa­že­tak: Autor po­la­zi od te­ze da je ak­tu­el­na eko­nom­ska kri­za i po du­bi­ni i po ob­u­hva­tu „ve­ro­vat­no naj­ve­ća ko­ju je svet vi­deo“, ali da su vi­dlji­ve po­sle­di­ce ove kri­ze, zasa­d ma­nje od onih iz 1929. go­di­ne. Glav­ni kri­vac i ge­ne­ra­tor, ka­ko da­na­šnje, ta­ko i ve­ći­ne pret­hod­nih kri­za je­ste (neo)li­be­ral­na eko­nom­ska po­li­ti­ka i te­o­ri­ja, sa nje­nom dog­mom o „de­re­gu­li­sa­nom tr­ži­štu“ i slo­bod­noj kon­ku­ren­ci­ji kao uni­ver­zal­nom le­ku za sve dru­štve­ne i eko­nom­ske pro­ble­me. Na kra­ju, autor po­ma­lo iro­nič­no kon­sta­tu­je ka­ko ne­će pro­ći pu­no vre­me­na do po­ja­ve no­ve, pre­i­me­no­va­ne in­kar­na­ci­je la­is­sez-fa­i­re ide­je, to jest, da će se, ka­ko se bu­de od­mi­ca­lo od kri­ze, is­pr­va ti­ho, a po­tom sve gla­sni­je, po­ja­vlji­va­ti gla­so­vi i struč­ni ra­do­vi u ko­ji­ma će se ob­ja­šnja­va­ti da su neo­li­be­ral­ni po­stu­la­ti, za­pra­vo, bez ma­ne, ali da je gre­ška bi­la sa­mo u pri­me­ni i teh­ni­ci. A za kriv­ca i iza­zi­va­ča kri­ze će po­no­vo bi­ti op­tu­že­na dr­ža­va, a ne pri­vat­ni sek­tor i lo­gi­ka „ka­zi­no eko­no­mi­je“.

Ključ­ne re­či: eko­no­mi­ja, neo­li­be­ra­li­zam, la­is­sez-faire, slo­bod­no tr­ži­šte, svet­ska eko­nom­ska kri­za.

Jo­van B. Du­ša­nić

Beogradska poslovna škola

Beograd

DO­LAR­SKA AL­HE­MI­JA I KA­ZI­NO EKO­NO­MI­JA

Sa­že­tak: Ak­tu­el­na glo­bal­na eko­nom­ska kri­za ni­je kon­juk­tur­na ne­go ozbilj­na si­stem­ska kri­za, či­je ko­re­ne tre­ba tra­ži­ti u od­lu­ci iz Bre­ton Vud­sa (1944) da ame­rič­ka nov­ča­na je­di­ni­ca – do­lar po­sta­ne svet­ska re­zer­vna va­lu­ta, a da Ame­rič­ka cen­tral­na ban­ka ga­ran­tu­je pu­nu kon­ver­ti­bil­nost do­la­ra u zla­to. SAD ni­su mo­gle da odo­le is­ku­še­nju da (zlo)upo­tre­be mo­guć­nost ko­ja im se pru­ži­la, te da uvoz re­al­nih re­sur­sa iz dru­gih ze­ma­lja po­kri­va­ju do­la­ri­ma emi­to­va­nim bez ade­kvat­nog po­kri­ća, da bi (1971) jed­no­stra­no od­ba­ci­le pre­u­ze­tu oba­ve­zu i uki­nu­le kon­ver­ti­bil­nost do­la­ra za zla­to. Ta­ko smo do­šli u si­tu­a­ci­ju u ko­joj se či­ni­lo da su SAD na­po­kon us­pe­le da pro­na­đu ča­rob­nu for­mu­lu za vi­še­ve­kov­ne bez­u­spe­šne po­ku­ša­je al­he­mi­ča­ra da stvo­re bo­gat­stvo „iz ni­če­ga“. Ame­ri­kan­ci su sa­da mo­gli (ko­ri­ste­ći svo­ju po­li­tič­ku, voj­nu i eko­nom­sku si­lu) jed­no­stav­nim „štam­pa­njem“ do­la­ra da do­la­ze do ogrom­nih re­al­nih ma­te­ri­jal­nih do­ba­ra iz ce­lo­ga sve­ta. Da bi po­ve­ća­va­ni ape­ti­ti mo­gli bi­ti za­do­vo­lje­ni, SAD su pred­u­zi­ma­le ak­tiv­ne me­re ka­ko bi ši­ri­le zo­nu ko­ri­šće­nja ame­rič­kog do­la­ra, bi­lo pre­ko no­vih te­ri­to­ri­ja ili pre­ko no­vih ak­ti­va tr­go­va­nja. Ka­da se kroz pro­ces glo­ba­li­za­ci­je do­lar pro­ši­rio na ceo svet, a ka­ko je ukup­na ko­li­či­na ma­te­ri­jal­nih ak­ti­va ogra­ni­če­na, na­stu­pa pe­ri­od in­ten­ziv­nog stva­ra­nja no­vih „vir­tu­el­nih“ ak­ti­va sa ko­ji­ma se tr­gu­je na fi­nan­sij­skim tr­ži­šti­ma. Na spe­ku­la­tiv­nim ope­ra­ci­ja­ma (prak­tič­no iz va­zdu­ha) s vre­me­nom je na­du­van ve­li­ki „ba­lon“, od­no­sno stvo­re­na je ogrom­na ma­sa fi­nan­sij­skih ak­ti­va ko­ja vi­še­stru­ko pre­ma­šu­je te­ku­ću vred­nost re­al­nog sek­to­ra eko­no­mi­je. Pu­ca­njem tog „va­zdu­šnog ba­lo­na“ su­o­či­li smo se sa kri­zom iz ko­je se sa­da tra­ži iz­laz. Me­re ko­je pred­u­zi­ma­ju vo­de­će ze­mlje, pre svih, SAD (upum­pa­va­nje sve­žeg nov­ca i sni­že­nje ka­mat­nih sto­pa), li­če na ga­še­nje po­ža­ra ben­zi­nom. Te­ško da re­še­nje mo­že da bu­de ono što je bio iz­vor pro­ble­ma.

Ključ­ne re­či: kri­za, ame­rič­ki do­lar, spe­ku­la­ci­je, vir­tu­el­na eko­no­mi­ja, va­zdu­šni ba­lon.

Ru­ži­ca Cvet­ko­vić

Me­ga­trend uni­ver­zi­tet

Beograd

ME­ĐU­NA­ROD­NA FI­NAN­SIJ­SKA TR­ŽI­ŠTA – ANA­LI­ZA NE­KIH UZRO­KA KRI­ZE

Sa­že­tak: U ovom ra­du po­ku­ša­će­mo da sa­gle­da­mo je­dan od naj­va­žni­jih uzro­ka me­đu­na­rod­ne fi­nan­sij­ske kri­ze – ko­ri­šće­nje do­la­ra kao svet­skog nov­ca i po­tre­bu dru­ga­či­jeg ustroj­stva na me­đu­na­rod­noj mo­ne­tar­noj i fi­nan­sij­skoj sce­ni. Kri­za na me­đu­na­rod­nom fi­nan­sij­skom tr­ži­štu ima mno­go uzro­ka, ali oni naj­va­žni­ji ipak po­ti­ču iz nje­go­vog naj­o­se­tlji­vi­jeg seg­men­ta – de­vi­znog tr­ži­šta. Osnov­na ulo­ga me­đu­na­rod­nog fi­nan­sij­skog tr­ži­šta je­ste us­po­sta­vlja­nje ve­za iz­me­đu fi­nan­sij­skih tr­ži­šta po­je­di­nih ze­ma­lja ka­ko bi se omo­gu­ći­la pla­ća­nja ko­ja pro­is­ti­ču iz me­đu­na­rod­ne eko­nom­ske sa­rad­nje. U sa­vre­me­nim uslo­vi­ma pro­me­nje­na je eko­nom­ska sna­ga na­ci­o­nal­nih pri­vre­da, pa se za­o­štra­va­ju manj­ka­vo­sti po­sto­je­ćeg me­đu­na­rod­nog mo­ne­tar­nog si­ste­ma i na­me­će se po­tre­ba da i va­lu­te is­toč­no­e­vrop­skih i azij­skih ze­ma­lja za­u­zmu ade­kvat­no me­sto na me­đu­na­rod­nom fi­nan­sij­skom tr­ži­štu.

Ključ­ne re­či: mo­ne­tar­ni si­stem, do­lar, me­đu­na­rod­no fi­nan­sij­sko tr­ži­šte, kri­za.

Mlađen Kovačević

Akademija ekonomskih nauka

Beograd

Spoljni dug i stepen spoljne zaduženosti Srbije

Sa­že­tak: Sr­bi­ja je u 2000. godini bi­la eks­trem­no vi­so­ko za­du­že­na ze­mlja. To­kom pr­vih ne­ko­li­ko go­di­na no­vog ve­ka kre­i­ra­n je niz pro­jek­ci­ja spolj­nog du­ga do 2010. go­di­ne, či­jim ostva­re­njem bi bio obez­be­đen nje­gov odr­živ ni­vo. Me­đu­tim, su­prot­no tim pro­jek­ci­ja­ma, ap­so­lut­ni i re­la­tiv­ni po­ka­za­te­lji spolj­nog du­ga Sr­bi­je su dra­ma­tič­no po­gor­ša­ni – na­ro­či­to u 2008. i 2009. go­di­ni. I po­red to­ga, Na­rod­na ban­ka Sr­bi­je i zva­nič­ni­ci i da­lje tvr­de da je Sr­bi­ja sred­nje za­du­že­na ze­mlja. Ako se ima­ju u vi­du od­no­si spolj­nog du­ga pre­ma vred­no­sti iz­vo­za ro­be i uslu­ga, a po­seb­no ot­pla­ta pre­ma iz­vo­zu ro­be i uslu­ga i pre­ma bru­to do­ma­ćem pro­iz­vo­du – da na­gla­si­mo, Sr­bi­ja je vi­so­ko­ za­du­že­na ze­mlja i vr­lo je ve­ro­vat­no da će njen ste­pen spolj­ne za­du­že­no­sti u 2010. i 2011. go­di­ni bi­ti do­dat­no po­ve­ćan i da joj zbog to­ga pre­ti re­al­na opa­snost da za­pad­ne u du­go­roč­nu te­šku du­žnič­ku kri­zu. Zbog sve­ga to­ga, Sr­bi­ja bi mo­ra­la što pre pri­hva­ti­ti i do­sled­no re­a­li­zo­va­ti du­go­roč­nu stra­te­gi­ju upra­vlja­nja spolj­nim du­gom.

Ključ­ne re­či: spolj­ni dug, ste­pen spolj­ne za­du­že­no­sti, Sr­bi­ja.

Dejan Miljković

Megatrend univerzitet

Beograd

NOVI EKONOMSKI KONCEPT ZA PREVAZILAŽENjE EKONOMSKE KRIZE U SRBIJI

Sa­že­tak: U tek­stu iz­la­že­mo pre­sek tre­nut­ne pri­vred­ne si­tu­a­ci­je u Sr­bi­ji, za­tim pred­lo­ge, tj. uslo­ve Me­đu­na­rod­nog mo­ne­tar­nog fon­da za na­sta­vak kre­dit­ne po­dr­ške, po­sle­di­ce pri­hva­ta­nja istih za eko­no­mi­ju i so­ci­jal­ni si­stem, i na kra­ju pred­sta­vlja­mo al­ter­na­tiv­ni eko­nom­ski kon­cept za pre­va­zi­la­že­nje eko­nom­ske kri­ze u Sr­bi­ji. No­vi eko­nom­ski kon­cept ba­zi­ra se na ne­ko­li­ko ključ­nih ele­me­na­ta ko­ji pu­tem raz­li­či­tih eko­nom­skih me­ha­ni­za­ma ima­ju vi­še­di­men­zi­o­nal­no dej­stvo s ci­ljem pre­va­zi­la­že­nja ne­ga­tiv­nih efe­ka­ta eko­nom­ske kri­ze na pri­vred­nu ak­tiv­nost i ži­vot­ni stan­dard gra­đa­na Sr­bi­je i po­sta­vlja­nja osno­va za bu­du­ći raz­voj. U dru­gom de­lu iz­no­si­mo od­go­vo­re na ključ­ne pri­med­be i kri­ti­ke na iz­ne­ti kon­cept.

Ključ­ne re­či: eko­nom­ska kri­za, MMF, bu­džet, NBS, re­fe­rent­na ka­mat­na sto­pa, no­vi kon­cept.

Raj­ko Bu­kvić

Me­ga­trend uni­ver­zi­tet

Beograd

ZA­LO­ŽNO-KRE­DIT­NE AUK­CI­JE I NA­STA­NAK RU­SKIH OLI­GAR­HA

Sa­že­tak: Pro­ce­si pri­va­ti­za­ci­je ko­ji su obe­le­ži­li tzv. tran­zi­ci­ju is­toč­no­e­vrop­skih pri­vre­da to­kom de­ve­de­se­tih go­di­na pro­šlog i po­čet­nih go­di­na ovog ve­ka osta­vi­li su mno­go te­o­rij­skog i em­pi­rij­skog ma­te­ri­ja­la ko­ji će si­gur­no još du­go bi­ti pred­met pro­u­ča­va­nja. Na­ro­či­to je in­te­re­san­tan i zna­ča­jan ovaj pro­ces u Ru­si­ji, naj­ve­ćoj i naj­bo­ga­ti­joj ze­mlji biv­šeg tzv. so­ci­ja­li­stič­kog blo­ka, gde je ma­sov­na va­u­čer­ska pri­va­ti­za­ci­ja bi­la pra­će­na ra­znim ma­hi­na­ci­ja­ma ko­ju je or­ga­ni­zo­va­la vla­da­ju­ća kli­ka oku­plje­na oko biv­šeg pred­sed­ni­ka Jelj­ci­na, nje­go­ve po­ro­di­ce i pri­ja­te­lja. U ra­du se raz­ma­tra je­dan od me­ha­ni­za­ma ko­ji­ma je ovaj pro­ces re­a­li­zo­van – me­ha­ni­zam za­lo­žno-kre­dit­nih auk­ci­ja, ko­je su spro­ve­de­ne pred kraj 1995. i ko­ji­ma je 12 gi­ga­na­ta ru­ske (i svet­ske) pri­vre­de prak­tič­no bes­plat­no pre­šlo u pri­vat­ne ru­ke, ofor­miv­ši de­fi­ni­tiv­no sloj oli­gar­ha. Pre­ma pri­zna­nju jed­nog od kre­a­to­ra i pro­ta­go­ni­sta ce­log ovog pro­ce­sa, na taj na­čin je pla­ća­na po­li­tič­ka po­dr­ška sna­ga­ma ko­je su iz­ve­le ovu, ka­ko on ka­že, „nor­mal­nu“ re­vo­lu­ci­ju. Po­sta­vlja se, me­đu­tim, pi­ta­nje, a na ko­je taj pro­ta­go­nist ni­je dao od­go­vor – či­ja je to po­dr­ška to­li­ko va­žna i to­li­ko sku­pa: da li do­ma­ćih taj­ku­na (po­put ban­ka­ra Po­ta­nji­na i slič­nih, ko­ji su ovaj me­ha­ni­zam i ini­ci­ra­li i na nje­mu se enorm­no obo­ga­ti­li) ili ne­kog dru­gog?

Ključ­ne re­či: za­lo­žno-kre­dit­ne auk­ci­je, pri­va­ti­za­ci­ja, Ru­si­ja, oli­gar­si, po­li­tič­ka po­dr­ška, na­rod­na imo­vi­na.

OGLEDI

Ma­ri­ja Ob­ra­do­vić

In­sti­tut za no­vi­ju isto­ri­ju Sr­bi­je

Be­o­grad

ULO­GA ME­ĐU­NA­ROD­NIH FI­NAN­SIJ­SKIH OR­GA­NI­ZA­CI­JA I AGEN­CI­JA U PRI­VA­TI­ZA­CI­JI DRU­ŠTVE­NOG KA­PI­TA­LA U SR­BI­JI 2002.

Sa­že­tak: Me­đu­na­rod­ne fi­nan­sij­ske or­ga­ni­za­ci­je i agen­ci­je stra­nih vla­da ze­ma­lja cen­tra svet­skog si­ste­ma ka­pi­ta­li­zma fi­nan­sij­ski su do­na­ci­ja­ma po­mo­gle i pod­sta­kle pro­ces pri­va­ti­za­ci­je dru­štve­nog ka­pi­ta­la u Sr­bi­ji, tj. „raz­voj pri­vat­nog sek­to­ra“. Do­na­ci­ja­ma me­đu­na­rod­nih fi­nan­sij­skih or­ga­ni­za­ci­ja i agen­ci­ja­ma stra­nih vla­da fi­nan­si­ra­no je an­ga­žo­va­nje fi­nan­sij­skih i prav­nih pri­va­ti­za­ci­o­nih sa­vet­ni­ka od stra­ne Agen­ci­je za pri­va­ti­za­ci­ju. Po­što Za­ko­nom o pri­va­ti­za­ci­ji ni­je de­fi­ni­san na­čin utvr­đi­va­nja vred­no­sti, od­no­sno ce­ne ka­pi­ta­la su­bje­ka­ta pri­va­ti­za­ci­je kod me­to­de ten­der­ske pro­da­je, ulo­ga kon­sul­ta­na­ta u pro­ce­su pri­va­ti­za­ci­je u Sr­bi­ji je zna­čaj­na jer se ogle­da u pri­pre­mi iz­ve­šta­ja o struk­tu­ri i pro­ce­ni vred­no­sti ka­pi­ta­la su­bjek­ta pri­va­ti­za­ci­je ko­je usva­ja Agen­ci­ja za pri­va­ti­za­ci­ju. Pred­u­ze­to is­tra­ži­va­nje po­tvr­đu­je po­la­znu hi­po­te­zu da je za­po­če­ti kurs pri­va­ti­za­ci­je u Sr­bi­ji 2002. go­di­ne imao po­li­tič­ki, a ne eko­nom­ski cilj. Ta­ko je pri­va­ti­za­ci­ja bi­la pre­vas­hod­no sred­stvo re­sta­u­ra­ci­je ka­pi­ta­li­zma u Sr­bi­ji, a ne nje­nog dru­štve­no-eko­nom­skog raz­vo­ja.

Ključ­ne re­či: pri­va­ti­za­ci­ja, Sr­bi­ja, me­đu­na­rod­ne fi­nan­sij­ske or­ga­ni­za­ci­je, pri­va­ti­za­ci­o­ni sa­vet­ni­ci.

De­jan Mi­ro­vić

NSPM

Beograd

Srbija i EU na­kon za­klju­či­va­nja Sporazuma o sta­bi­li­za­ci­ji i pridruživa­nju (2008–2010)

Sa­že­tak: U član­ku se ana­li­zi­ra­ju prav­ni i eko­nom­ski efek­ti za­klju­či­va­nja Spo­ra­zu­ma o sta­bi­li­za­ci­ji i pri­dru­ži­va­nju iz­me­đu Sr­bi­je i EU u pe­ri­o­du od 2008. go­di­ne do 2010. go­di­ne. U uvod­nom de­lu se raz­ma­tra po­če­tak pro­ce­sa za­klju­či­va­nja Spo­ra­zu­ma o sta­bi­li­za­ci­ji i pri­dru­ži­va­nju u ju­go­i­stoč­noj Evro­pi i re­gi­o­nu. Za­tim se raz­ma­tra­ju prav­ni aspek­ti za­klju­či­va­nja Spo­ra­zu­ma o sta­bi­li­za­ci­ji i pri­dru­ži­va­nju iz­me­đu Sr­bi­je i EU. Po­se­ban na­gla­sak je na ana­li­zi naj­va­žni­jeg, eko­nom­skog de­la, Spo­ra­zu­ma o sta­bi­li­za­ci­ji i pri­dru­ži­va­nju za­klju­če­nog iz­me­đu Sr­bi­je i EU, Pre­la­znog tr­go­vin­skog spo­ra­zu­ma. Pre­la­zni tr­go­vin­ski spo­ra­zum se raz­ma­tra i u kon­tek­stu no­vog pro­tek­ci­o­ni­zma EU.

Ključ­ne re­či: Sr­bi­ja, EU, Spo­ra­zu­m o sta­bi­li­za­ci­ji i pri­dru­ži­va­nju, Pre­la­zni tr­go­vin­ski spo­ra­zum, no­vi pro­tek­ci­o­ni­zam.

Alek­san­dar Ja­zić

Fa­kul­te­t po­li­tič­kih na­u­ka

Be­o­grad

Ame­rič­ka i so­vjet­ska pro­pa­gan­da u Hlad­nom ra­tu

Sa­že­tak: Autor raz­ma­tra osnov­ne ka­rak­te­ri­sti­ke so­vjet­ske i ame­rič­ke pro­pa­gan­de to­kom Hlad­nog ra­ta. Rad omo­gu­ća­va pre­gled glav­nih pro­pa­gand­nih in­sti­tu­ci­ja i agen­ci­ja i uvid u na­či­ne spro­vo­đe­nja pro­pa­gand­nih ak­tiv­no­sti, kao i u sfe­re u ko­ji­ma su te ak­tiv­no­sti spro­vo­đe­ne. Kraj Dru­gog svet­skog ra­ta je zbog raz­li­či­tog vi­đe­nja po­sle­rat­nog ure­đe­nja sve­ta iz­ne­drio ide­o­lo­šku bor­bu dve su­persi­le. Zbog iz­jed­na­če­no­sti u na­o­ru­ža­nju i SSSR i SAD bi­li su pri­nu­đe­ni da bor­bu vo­de na dru­ga­či­jem po­lju i dru­ga­či­jim sred­stvi­ma. I SAD i SSSR na­sto­ja­li su da pro­pa­gand­nim ak­tiv­no­sti­ma pri­do­bi­ju raz­li­či­te ze­mlje za svo­ju ide­o­lo­gi­ju. Ta­ko­đe, pro­pa­gand­na bor­ba u Hlad­nom ra­tu pod­ra­zu­me­va­la je i obim­nu mo­bi­li­za­ci­ju do­ma­ćeg sta­nov­ni­štva za ide­o­lo­šku bor­bu. Obe stra­ne raz­vi­le su pro­pa­gand­ne ak­tiv­no­sti i pro­pa­gand­ne or­ga­ni­za­ci­je i agen­ci­je do naj­vi­šeg ni­voa.

Ključ­ne re­či: SAD, SSSR, Dru­gi svet­ski rat, Hlad­ni rat, pro­pa­gan­da, me­đu­na­rod­ni od­no­si, spolj­na po­li­ti­ka.

 CONTENTS

Editorial.........................................................................................         3

TOPIC OF THE ISSUE

SERBIA AND THE WORLD ECONOMIC CRISIS

Oskar Kovač

Causes and Potential Concepts for solving the World Financial

crisis...........................................................................................         7

Ognjen Radonjić

Causes of the current World Economic Crisis: A Successful

Snow Job....................................................................................       25

Nebojša Katić

Neoliberal Roots of the World Economic Crisis..............................       55

Jovan B. Dušanić

Dollar alchemy and the Casino Economy: World Economic Crisis...       67

Ružica Cvetković

International Financial Crisis: An Analysis of some Causes

of the Crisis.................................................................................       89

Mlađen Kovačević

Serbian Foreign Debt and the Amount of its Foreign Indebtedness..       97

Dejan Miljković

A new economic Concept for overcoming Economic Crisis

in Serbia......................................................................................     113

Rajko Bukvić

Lien-loan Auctions and Origins of Russian Oligarchy.....................     131

 

Translation

Joseph Stiglitz

Death cometh for the greenback...................................................     157

Ted Galen Carpenter

NATO at 60: A Hollow Alliance...................................................     169

 

 

Studies

Marija Obradović

The Role of International Financial Organizations and Agencies

in Privatization of State-owned Capital in Serbia in 2002.................     191

Dejan Mirović

Serbia and the EU after signing the Stabilization and Association

Agreement (2008–2010)..............................................................     213

Aleksandar Jazić

American and Soviet Propaganda during the Cold War..................     223

 

Polemics

Mario Kalik

Anti-Titoists (on Lompar’s critique of Titoism)...............................     245

Adriana Zaharijević

On Hypocrisy and other Phantoms of Feminism.............................     257

 

Rewiews

Dejan Petrović

Dejan Petrović: The Black Book of Neoliberalism

(Naomi Klein: The Shock Doctrine)............................................     271

Borisav Knežević

Toward a Society of the Future

(Francis Fukuyama: The Clash of Cultures).................................     268

Aleksandar Novaković

On Death and Birth of States

(Aleksandar Pavković, Petar Radan, Stvaranje novih država

– teorija i praksa otcepljenja)...................................................     273

Slobodan Antonić

Busting EU myths

(Dejan Mirović, Argumenti protiv Evropske unije)......................     278

Saša Gajić

A heart-rending Confession of a Participant and Witness

(Nikola Koljević, Stvaranje Republike Srpske)............................     285

Željka Buturović

Revolution in Europe

(Cristopher Caldwell, Reflections on the Revolution in Europe:

Immigration, Islam, and the West)..............................................     290

 

Contents..........................................................................................     295

  

Oskar Kovacs

CAUSES AND POTENTIAL CONCEPTS FOR SOLVING

THE WORLD FINANCIAL CRISIS

Summary

The inability of neoclassical theory to discern the causes of economic and financial crises comes from unrealistic assumptions about rational behavior of manufacturers and consumers and the market functions perfectly. The very fact that these conditions have not been fulfilled explains most economic and financial crises. Financial crises are usually results of bad deregulation of significantly imperfect financial markets, which prevented authorities to impose responsible behavior on commercial banks, based on prescribing the ratio of their own capital and asset exposure. Full-scale rescuing of insolvent major banks in developed countries without a reform of the financial system will cause even worse crises in the future. There search for a solution is moving on two tracks. A group of twenty countries tends to create global solutions without consulting other countries. At the same time, the United Nations, which represent the entire world community, are doing the same. Due to different interests of major countries and long legislative procedures, neither of these solutions will be applied until the next crisis arises.

Key words: financial crises, economic recession, causes and possible solutions.

Ognjen Radonjić

CAUSES OF THE CURRENT WORLD ECONOMIC CRISIS:

A SUCCESSFUL SNOW JOB

Summary

The world economic crises broke out in August 2007. To avoid similar mistakes in the future, the aim of this paper is to find answers to the questions of how and why the crisis broke out and who the main culprits are. We find that the source of the crisis is the continuous process of deregulation which followed the end of the Second World War. In their pursuit for ever-increasing profit, greedy money-lenders created numerous varieties of factitious and very risky debt financial instruments; by using different techniques of stimulating loans they created an illusion that exotic products of financial magicians are safe. Of course, we think that the main culprits are those who enabled flourishing of one of the biggest scams of financial history – irresponsible, well-paid and corrupt regulatory authorities.

Key words: debt, speculation, deregulation, exotic financial instruments, crisis.

Nebojša Katić

NEOLIBERAL ROOTS OF THE WORLD ECONOMIC CRISIS

Summary

The author starts with the hypothesis that the ongoing economic crisis is “probably the greatest one the world has ever seen”, judging by its scope and depth, but thinks that the apparent consequences of the crisis are still smaller than those of the 1929 Depression. The main culprit for and generator of both the current and previous crises are the (neo)liberal economic policy and theory with their “deregulated market” and free competition dogmas as universal cures for all social and economic problems. At the end the author somewhat ironically states that very soon a new and renamed incarnation of laissez faire will appear, i.e. that when the crisis comes to an end, there will be voices and papers explaining that neoliberal principles are in fact flawless, and that the only mistakes were made in their implementation and techniques. The state will again be labeled as culprit, instead of the private sector and the “casino economy” logic.

Key words: economy, neoliberalism, laissez faire, free market, world economic crisis.

Jovan B. Dušanić

DOLLAR ALCHEMY AND THE CASINO ECONOMY: WORLD ECONOMIC CRISIS

Summary

The ongoing world economic crisis is not simply the state of the market, but a serious crisis of the system, whose roots can be traced to the Bretton Woods Conference (1944), when it was decided that the US dollar should become the world’s reserve currency, and that the dollar gold convertibility should be guaranteed by the American central bank. The US could not resist the temptation to (ab)use the opportunity it had and to start paying the import of goods from other countries by issuing dollars without proper coverage; later in 1971, the US unilaterally reneged on the commitment and suspended dollar-gold convertibility. Thus we found ourselves in a situation in which the US seemed to have finally managed to find the magic formula for making the century-old efforts of alchemists to create wealth out of nothing come true. By using its political, military and economic power, the US could simply “print” dollars and gain huge amounts of real material goods from all over the world. To satisfy its increasing appetites, the US took active steps to expand the dollar zone, either through new territories, or new trade assets. When the dollar had spread all over the world due to globalization, and since the total amount of tangible assets is limited, there came a period of intensive creation of new “virtual” assets that could be traded on financial markets. Speculative operations (which came about out of the blue) created a bubble, i.e. a huge mass of financial assets which greatly exceeds the current value of the real economic sector. When the bubble burst, we faced a crisis everyone seeks to resolve. Steps taken by major countries, primarily the US (pumping fresh money and decreasing interest rates), are like adding fuel to the fire. It is hardly likely that the solution to the problem can be what caused it in the first place.

Key words: crisis, US dollar, speculations, virtual economy, bubble.

Ružica Cvetković

INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL CRISIS: AN ANALYSIS OF SOME CAUSES OF THE CRISIS

Summary

In this paper the author will try to explain one of the most important causes of the international financial crisis – the use of the dollar as the universal currency and the need to structure the international monetary and financial scenes in a different way. There are many causes for the crisis on the international financial market, but the major ones stem from its most sensitive segment – the foreign exchange market. The key role of the international foreign exchange market is to connect financial markets of different countries so as to enable payments in international financial cooperation. In modern times, the strength of national economies has changed and deficiencies of the current international monetary systems have deteriorated, thus creating the need for East European and Asian currencies to take an adequate place on the international financial market.

Key words: monetary system, dollar, international financial market, crisis.

Mlađen Kovačević

SERBIAN FOREIGN DEBT AND THE AMOUNT

OF ITS FOREIGN INDEBTEDNESS

Summary

In the year 2000Serbia was a heavily indebted country. During the first few years of the 21st century several foreign debt projections until 2010 were made; if they proved to be true, the level of foreign debt would remain sustainable. However, contrary to these projections, both absolute and relative indicators of Serbia’s indebtedness dramatically deteriorated, particularly in 2008 and 2009. Even so, the National Bank of Serbia and Serbian officials still maintain that Serbia is a moderately indebted country. Bearing in mind the foreign debt and export value of goods and services ratio, and particularly the debt payment and export/BNP ratio, we must emphasize that Serbia is a heavily indebted country, likely to become even more indebted in 2010 and 2011, and it is quite realistic to say that a heavy debt crisis is looming. These are the reasons why Serbia should adopt and consistently implement a long-term foreign debt management strategy.

Key words: foreign debt, amount of foreign indebtedness, Serbia.

Dejan Miljković

A NEW ECONOMIC CONCEPT FOR OVERCOMING

ECONOMIC CRISIS IN SERBIA

Summary

In this text the author gives an outline of the current economic situation in Serbia, goes on to proposals, or to be more precise, the conditions set by the IMF for credit backing, how it will affect the economy and welfare and presents an alternative economic concept for overcoming the economic crisis in Serbia. This new concept is based on several key elements which use different economic mechanisms to produce a multi-faceted effect; they are designed to overcome the adverse effects of the economic crisis on business activity, on standard of Serbian citizens and to make foundations for future development. The second part of the paper provides reactions to main objections to and criticisms of the concept.

Key words: economic crisis, IMF, budget, National Bank of Serbia, reference rate, new concept.

Rajko Bukvić

LIEN-LOAN AUCTIONS AND ORIGINS OF RUSSIAN

OLIGARCHY

Summary

The process of privatization that marked the so-called transition of East European economies in the 1990s and first decade of 21st century have left a lot of theoretical and empirical materials which will remain research topics for quite a while. This process is particularly interesting and significant in Russia, the biggest and richest country of the former Socialist Bloc, where massive voucher privatization was followed by various machinations organized by the ruling clique gathered around the former president Yeltsin, his family and friends. This paper analyzes one of the mechanisms that enabled process – lien-loan auctions, held in 1995 and in which twelve giants of Russian (and world economy) were privatized virtually at no cost, thus forming a class oligarchs. According to the confession of one of the creators and protagonists of the entire process, it was a means to pay for political support to carry out a “normal” revolution. However, there is a question which this protagonist did not answer – whose support is so important and expensive: the support of domestic tycoons (like the banker Potanin and those like him, who initiated this mechanism that made them enormously rich) or someone else’s support?

Key words: Russia, lien-loan auctions, privatization, oligarchs, political support, common property of the people.

Marija Obradović

THE ROLE OF INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL

ORGANIZATIONS AND AGENCIES IN PRIVATIZATION

OF STATE-OWNED CAPITAL IN SERBIA IN 2002

Summary

International financial organizations and government agencies of the powers of the world capitalism gave financial aid and support to the process of privatization of state-owned capital in Serbia, i.e. they helped “development of private sector”. Donations of international financial organizations and foreign government agencies financed participation of financial and legal advisors for privatization employed by the Privatization Agency. Since the Privatization Law does not define value assessment, i.e. the price of the capital of the subject of privatization in tender sale, the role of the consultant in privatization in Serbia is significant, because it entails making draft reports on structure and capital valuation, which is later adopted by the Privatization Agency. The research we carried out proves the initial hypothesis that the ongoing system of privatization, which started in 2002, had political instead of economic objectives. Privatization was thus a means to restore capitalism in Serbia instead of concentrating on its socio-economic development.

Key words: privatization, Serbia, international financial organizations, privatization advisors.

Dejan Mirović

SERBIA AND THE EU AFTER SIGNING THE STABILIZATION AND ASSOCIATION AGREEMENT (2008-2010)

Summary

This article provides an analysis of legal and economic effects of the Stabilization and Association Agreement in the period between 2008 and 2010. The introduction provides insight into the beginning of implementation of the Stabilization and Association Agreement in South Eastern Europe. The author goes on to analyze legal aspects of the Stabilization and Association Agreement between Serbia and EU. The author also gives special emphasis to the most important part of the Agreement which concerns economy, i.e. the Interim agreement on trade. This agreement is also explained within the context of the new protectionism in EU.

Key words: Serbia, EU, Stabilization and Association Agreement, Interim agreement, new protectionism.

Aleksandar Jazić

AMERICAN AND SOVIET PROPAGANDA DURING THE COLD WAR

Summary

The author describes basic features of Soviet and American propaganda during the Cold War. This paper gives an overview of major propaganda institutions and agencies and provides insight into the ways carrying out propaganda activities and into domains in which they were implemented. Due to different views on post-war system of government, this period resulted in ideological struggle of the two super-powers. Being equally armed, both USSR and USA were forced to move their conflict to a different battlefield and to use different means. Both countries sought to win over different countries through their propaganda activities and thus make them adopt their ideologies. Furthermore, the propaganda struggle during the Cold War implied ample “mobilization” of local population for ideological struggle. Both sides developed propaganda activities, organizations and agencies to highest extent.

Key words: USA, USSR, Second World War, Cold War, propaganda, international relations, foreign policy. 

 

Anketa

Da li mislite da će u narednih godinu dana u Srbiji biti održani novi parlamentarni izbori?
 

Republika Srpska: Stanje i perspektive

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